As demand for electric cars becomes increasingly self-sufficient, FW editor-at-large Alex Grant considers the sustainability challenges ahead for commercial fleets.

FW editor-at-large Alex Grant

Although it was a shadow of its former self, the sudden demise of the Plug-in Car Grant is an interesting barometer for the speed at which electrification is taking hold. Diesel cars have fallen out of favour so quickly that it’s hard to imagine the 50.6% share they had when the scheme launched in 2011. Meanwhile, the latest BVRLA statistics show electric cars are taking a 42% share of new BCH orders – five times higher than diesel – as sustainability concerns and tax incentives take effect. It’s difficult to see that trend turning around.

With the might of automotive R&D now backing electrification and political pressure mounting against the combustion engine, the Plug-in Car Grant isn’t the lynchpin it once was. I’d argue the bigger bottlenecks for fleet electrification are elsewhere; an unnerving lack of company car tax clarity beyond April 2025, production volumes lagging demand, and mileage rates which neither reflect the diversity of electric vehicles now on sale nor the cost of plugging them in. Oh yeah, and the not-so-small issue of electrifying vans.

Commercial vehicles haven’t been forgotten. They face the same combustion engine phase-out dates as passenger cars – and there’s a similar influx of ever-better new models to choose from. But OZEV is right to focus funding on end-users who may still need their arm twisted. Battery weight is still problematic for high-payload, long-range, mission-critical fleets and combustion-engine versatility is hard to match – 93% of vans registered during the first five months of 2022 still use diesel, according to the SMMT.

That dependency is a looming problem. Meeting 2025’s Euro 7 emissions standards is expected to require expensive aftertreatment systems and the declining market for diesel passenger cars means there’s less product to share development and manufacturing costs across. So, I’m sceptical when doubters argue that hydrogen fuel cells have missed their time to shine, but I doubt cars will be the early adopters.

It’s interesting how quickly the traditional advantages of hydrogen have become outdated. Fuel cell cars were once marketed for offering the familiar convenience of long range and short refuelling times. Advocates perhaps overlooked the advantages EVs have in this area; it’s more convenient to plug in at home or work (if you can) than it is to drive to even a local fuel station, and range anxiety dissolves really quickly if you live with one.

There are some interesting developments headed for the electric van space too – newcomer Arrival with its damage-resistant composite panels and rethink of visibility, access and manufacturing processes, for example – but it feels like fertile ground for hydrogen. Motor, battery and power electronics R&D (and the hardware itself) can be shared with EVs and they can offer long range without a payload-hobbling battery. An EV is more efficient, but should we overlook a potentially viable alternative to diesel?

Hydrogen has always been a “five years from now” technology, but it’s quietly gathering pace. Stellantis and Renault Group both have fuel cell vans in the works, the latter bundling in support for installing refuelling infrastructure and the UK government is backing green hydrogen production for HGVs, heating and shipping. Commercial fleets also have the advantage of more predictable usage patterns and often return to a depot, creating clusters of end-users and – in the longer term – a network of hydrogen stations which could support cars.

Decarbonisation isn’t easy – and there’s no silver bullet. Hydrogen has some hurdles to overcome, but it’s time to recognise it as a complementary technology as electrification takes hold.