Sales of new petrol and diesel cars could die out before the Government’s 2030 target, as a result of dwindling driver demand, new research suggests.

New AutoMotive says consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29 based on the current sales trajectory

According to independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive, consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29, based on the current sales trajectory. This is ahead of the 2030 deadline after which only EVs and hybrids that can travel a “significant distance” in zero-emissions mode will be allowed.

New AutoMotive said latest data from its Electric Car Count showed petrol car registrations shed 8 percentage points of market share in July as electric car registrations grew by 90%. This continues a long-term decline in the popularity of petrol since 2019, when they accounted for 65% of all new cars. Registrations of diesel cars have collapsed from their peak of 50% in 2016.

Its researchers added that competitive leasing deals on electric cars are likely to have driven the 90% jump in electric car registrations in July. Charging availability is also improving rapidly; Zapmap data shows that the number of ultra-rapid charge points almost doubled in the 12 months to July 2023. These developments are likely to be behind growing consumer appetite to go electric, with 54% of drivers now saying that they are considering going electric, according to EY’s latest Mobility Consumer Index. These findings chime with analysis by Lex Autolease issued last month and indicating that six in 10 (60%) drivers will move away from petrol and diesel vehicles and opt for battery technology when purchasing their next car.

New AutoMotive’s research has been published a week after new data showed one EV was registered every 60 seconds in July. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, more than 23,000 were registered last month – an 87.9% increase compared to the same period last year.

It’s in stark contrast to campaigns by mainstream media and right-wing MPs for the 2030 date to be pushed back.

Ben Nelmes, chief executive of New AutoMotive, said: “Debate about the Government’s 2030 target is starting to look academic. Consumers have all but ended the sale of diesel cars already and are increasingly shunning petrol cars.

“Remarkably, despite a recovery in the car market, sales of petrol cars remain in a long-term decline and are still around half of their pre-pandemic peak. Consumers are voting with their wallets and showing that they prefer to go electric.

“The biggest thing preventing more people getting in an electric car remains the supply of vehicles – ministers can fix this by introducing an ambitious ZEV mandate that starts in 2024.”