2023 will bring a significant rise in EV sales as supply issues dissipate and fleets continue to switch over.

DriveElectric predicts a total of 448,000 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK this year; up 68% from 2022

Electric car leasing guru DriveElectric predicts a total of 448,000 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK this year; up 68% from the 267,203 registered in 2022. The figure, which doesn’t include plug-in hybrids, would give a 24.9% market share, compared to 16.6% for last year.

The predictions come from DriveElectric’s own forecasts and are based on a number of factors, not least ongoing improvements in BEV availability and increased production as carmakers open more EV factories. This will also see many more new EV models launch here, including Chinese brands which are fast making inroads.

Fleets will be at the forefront of take-up as businesses continue the move to reduce their corporate carbon footprint. This will be supported by the Autumn Statement confirmation of continued low Benefit-in-Kind rates for UK company car drivers. Supported by such BiK rates, salary sacrifice will also provide a more stable environment for businesses transitioning to EVs.

Accelerated expansion of the public charging network will also help drive charge adoption as new operators such as Fastned and Mercedes-Benz expand in the UK market. Meanwhile, continued volatility in energy prices will see more people exploring ways to reduce energy costs for charging EVs, for example using solar and battery storage, with increased awareness about forthcoming vehicle to grid charging.

While fleet demand for BEVs will rocket, demand from private drivers is expected to decline on the back of cost pressures and declining consumer confidence.

Mike Potter, managing director, DriveElectric, explained: “EV registrations will continue to increase in 2023, as the industry recovers from challenges such as the semiconductor shortage, and as yet more new EV models come to market. Businesses will continue their enthusiastic transition to EVs, however the risk is that retail demand will be impacted by cost-of-living concerns.”

EV take-up will also soar further in 2024, supported by the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate due to be introduced by the Government from then. Details have still not been announced but the overall aim is to mandate manufacturers to sell an increasing proportion of electric vehicles each year in the lead up to the UK’s 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel car and van sales in 2030.

And from 2025 onwards, BEVs could account for around 50% of registrations according to DriveElectric, with registrations of petrol and diesel vehicles declining naturally ahead of the 2030 ban. ICE vehicles will become less attractive due to higher lease costs as a result of poor residual values, while EV prices will become increasingly competitive.