Meeting climate mitigation goals will require transformative changes in transport, including electrification along with systemic changes that lead to reductions in demand for transport.

Electromobility has the potential to rapidly reduce transport GHG, particularly as battery costs fall, but to fully decarbonise vehicles, zero-carbon electricity must be used to charge them

That’s one of the findings of a stark new report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which warns that it’s now or never to mitigate the worst of climate change.

The Working Group III report is the third part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year, and reveals that current global plans are extremely off track to make the necessary emissions cuts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, in order to avoid the worst of climate change.

Based on policies put into place up to the end of 2020, the world will still warm by 3.2C by 2100, with “catastrophic” results.

To tackle this, the report sets out a stark message of the need for “immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors”.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee. “I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective. If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”

The report outlines the need for significant changes to energy production, industry, transport, consumer behaviour, and enhanced carbon uptake and storage using nature – and that we have options in all sectors to at least halve emissions by 2030.

“Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This offers significant untapped potential,” said IPCC Working Group III co-chair Priyadarshi Shukla. “The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and wellbeing.”

EVs central to drastic reduction in transport emissions

Transport requires a radical rethink to cut emissions. The report says that in 2019, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector were up 74% from 1990 and accounted for 23% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Of this figure, 70% of direct transport emissions came from road vehicles, while 1%, 11% and 12% came from rail, shipping and aviation, respectively.

The report sets out that electromobility has the potential to rapidly reduce transport GHG, particularly as battery costs fall, and can especially be used in developing countries.

But to fully decarbonise vehicles, EVs must be charged with zero-carbon electricity, and car production, shipping, aviation and supply chains must be decarbonised. And in some transport sectors, electrification will not prove tenable and alternative fuels will be needed.

The report also recognises that BEVs can support the grid through V2G tech but mentions growing concerns about critical minerals needed for batteries and refers to the need for material and supply diversification strategies and circular material flows to reduce the environmental footprint and material supply risks for battery production.

Widespread behavioural changes

Alongside electrification, systemic changes will be needed to reduce emissions dramatically. These include telecommuting and digitalisation along with smart and shared mobility, which could reduce demand for passenger and freight services across land, air and sea.

The report points to how Covid lockdowns have demonstrated the transformative value of telecommuting, replacing significant numbers of work and personal journeys as well as promoting local active transport.

And it says there are growing opportunities to implement strategies that drive behavioural change and support the adoption of new transport technology options.

Revamping urban infrastructure could drive this – cities can reduce their transport-related fuel consumption by around 25% through combinations of more compact land use and the provision of less car-dependent transport infrastructure. The right policies can also drive active travel.

But there is a concern that some of these changes could lead to induced demand for transport and energy services, which may decrease their GHG emissions reduction potential. For example, while telecommuting could reduce travel demand, increased ridesharing could increase vehicle mileage travelled.

Commenting on the report, IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea said: “Climate change is the result of more than a century of unsustainable energy and land use, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production. This report shows how taking action now can move us towards a fairer, more sustainable world.”