The global EV market will achieve another year of growth in 2025, with plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales up 18% to more than 20 million units, according to Rho Motion.

The EV research firm has issued its snapshot electric vehicle sales 2025 predictions vs 2024:

China: 12.9 million, +17%

EU & EFTA & UK: 3.5 million, +15%

USA & Canada:  2.1 million, +16%

Iola Hughes, head of research for Rho Motion, commented: “If 2024 was the year of elections, 2025 is the year of legislation. The EU is seeing emission targets come into place, Trump’s presidency promises change for the US, and China continues the popular trade-in scheme. Still, we anticipate a steady year of growth across all regions, with China continuing to lead the charge.

The forecast is for a steady year of growth across all regions, with China continuing to lead the charge

“China’s grip on the global market isn’t going anywhere this year with several new plants set to open around the world, expanding its foothold internationally.

“Car manufacturer bosses in the EU will be experiencing some sleepless nights in 2025 as long-anticipated emissions targets come into effect this year and few are adequately prepared with billions of euros of fines on the line.

“Following his inauguration, President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda is in full swing and though the removal of EV tax credits is going to impact the long-term market, little change will be seen this year as the electrification of vehicles is here to stay.”

EU & EFTA & UK   

2024 was a rocky year for the European market, with EV sales falling 3% compared to 2023.

But Rho Motion experts anticipate a bounce back in 2025 thanks to the new emissions standards taking effect. Analysts foresee a 15% growth compared to 2024 or 13% increase compared to 2023, the last year to see growth in the market. Alongside the emissions targets, many car manufacturers are set to launch new smaller and cheaper EV models to boost uptake cornering the sub €25,000 (around £21k) market. However, car manufacturers are still predicted to miss this year’s EU targets in quite some way and could face up to €10bn (£8.3bn) in fines between them.

China   

Chinese manufacturers will tighten their grip on the global EV market as they open new overseas production facilities and continue their expansion into overseas markets. Brazil will see EV production facilities from both BYD and Great Wall Motors start operation. BYD is also set to begin production in Hungary in 2025. Meanwhile, domestically, the continuation of the trade-in scheme will provide consistently high growth. The next stage for the mature EV market in China is for more consolidation of manufacturers and beyond this year, the country is expected to tip over the 50% market saturation of EVs vs ICE (internal combustion engines).

US & Canada   

North America, which experienced a boost to the EV market in late 2024, is bracing itself for a wildly different legislative background under the Trump presidency. However, manufacturers’ plans are already underway for the year, and therefore, the impact of new legislation will be minimal this year. In the longer term, analysts anticipate a slowdown in growth, but ultimately, the electrification of the car market will continue.