Hitting net zero by 2050 will require a mass switch to low-carbon electric technologies across sectors including transport, new modelling from the Government’s eco advisers suggests.

By 2040, 80% of cars and 74% of vans on the road will need to be electric

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has published its advice on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, outlining a new pathway to a decarbonised UK by the middle of the century.

The Government’s eco advisers say UK emissions must fall to 87% below their 1990 levels by 2040 and set out measures to achieve this.

For the Seventh Carbon Budget, the largest share of emissions reduction in the Balanced Pathway for surface transport comes from switching from fossil fuel vehicles to electric cars, vans, HGVs, buses and motorcycles.

By 2040, 80% of cars and 74% of vans on the road will need to be electric. This means that the market share of new electric cars increases from 16% in 2023 to 55% by 2027, with electric vans increasing from 6% to 34%. Electric cars and vans reach around 95% of new sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

This trajectory outpaces the ZEV mandate, but the CCC says it is achievable – there has been strong early EV growth in the UK and consumer awareness is high.

Uptake modelling suggests that sales of new EVs will increase as they become relatively less expensive than ICE vehicles at the point of purchase, and when there is increased confidence in these technologies. Availability of cheap and reliable charging, including for households without off-street parking, is needed to increase consumer confidence.

Falling costs, primarily due to cheaper batteries, are a key driver of EV uptake. EVs are assumed to reach price parity with ICE vehicles between 2026 and 2028, depending on vehicle size. The prices of EVs have been falling quickly, and the lifetime cost of an EV is already lower than a comparable ICE vehicle for many drivers due to lower running and maintenance costs.

Used EVs have now reached upfront price parity with their ICE counterparts.

But sales of electric vans have been slower to pick up than cars. This is partly due to there being fewer electric van than car models. The continued development of charging infrastructure will be key in increasing commercial confidence in electric vans, but further action to remove barriers to uptake is likely to be needed.

The CCC says plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) do not play a central role in its modelling, although they will continue to be taken up in small numbers until 2035, and adds that real-world performance of PHEVs indicates that these often result in lower emissions savings than previously expected, so the Government should consider including PHEVs in the ICE phase-out date.

The UK’s independent advisor on tackling climate change also says it sees only a very niche, if any, role in surface transport.

Other findings are that good progress has been made in the roll-out of EV chargers, which should in turn increase consumer confidence and EV uptake.

Recommendations for the Government include:

• Implement regulations requiring that all new cars and vans sold after 2030 must be able to travel a significant distance using electrical power alone. The CCC also warns that legislation will be required to establish ambitious targets for the ZEV mandate from 2031 to 2035 if hybrids are still allowed post 2030.
• Improve the availability and reduce the cost of local public charging for drivers who do not have access to private off-street parking, to make local public charging more comparable to charging at home.
• Develop further policies and incentives to accelerate zero-emission van uptake, working with major van fleet operators to understand and overcome barriers to uptake such as charging and access to finance.
• Design and implement a regulatory mechanism requiring sales of zero-emission HGVs to scale up to meet the 2040 end-of-sales date for new diesel HGVs (2035 for smaller HGVs) and provide purchase subsidies where required.
• Develop a strategy to deliver the required charging infrastructure for heavy-duty vehicles, including HGVs and buses.
• Provide local authorities with long-term funding and powers to deliver increases in public transport, walking, and cycling. Long-term clarity is also needed on what funding streams will be available to implement plans and additional powers for local areas to deliver an integrated public transport offer.
• Highlight the benefits of zero-emission vehicles. The Government and industry should actively provide information on the benefits of EVs while also spotlighting the extent of charging availability and tackling misinformation about battery longevity and EV lifecycle emissions.

Professor Piers Forster, interim chair at the CCC, said: “For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming. This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.

“Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy. We will need government and business to deliver the investment, but we are confident that this Seventh Carbon Budget offers a secure, prosperous future for the UK.”

Industry reaction

Oliver Lord, UK Head of Clean Cities Campaign

“It’s clear that emissions reductions from transport are critical to keep us on track for net zero. Excellent progress in other sectors shows that major reductions are possible.

“The number of vans on our roads has skyrocketed in recent years, worsening carbon emissions and air pollution in our cities. The committee is right to stress that we must quickly implement policies and incentives to boost electric van uptake, which is lagging in the UK.

“This government doesn’t need to look far for solutions. A national framework for zero-emission freight in the Netherlands has empowered cities and businesses to work together to transform urban logistics and accelerate the sales of electric vans to around twice that of the UK.

“This report presents a clear mandate for the Mayor of London to listen to Londoners and businesses by exempting electric vans from the Congestion Charge beyond this year, and developing policies that support zero-emission freight in the capital.”

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive

“As the Committee for Climate Change’s latest carbon budget makes abundantly clear, decarbonising surface transport and, particularly, road transport is fundamental to the delivery of net zero. Take-up of zero emission vehicles to the expected levels can only be stimulated if there are bold incentives to encourage demand, more affordable electricity, significant additional investment in infrastructure, and clear and consistent messaging that buying an electric vehicle is the right thing to do. Moreover, we want this transition to support industry, jobs and economic growth in the UK, so ambitious industrial and trade strategies must be implemented else the security and resilience the budget seeks to deliver would be put at risk.”

Vicky Edmonds, CEO of EVA England

“Electric vehicles are the key to unlocking net zero, and today’s Climate Change Committee proves this by projecting the road transport sector will be the UK’s single greatest source of carbon emission reduction for the foreseeable future.

“The Government has accepted recommendations from all previous Committee reports and, on this occasion, it must equally take stock of the considerable opportunity that lies in getting the transition to electrified road transport right. This means ensuring EVs are affordable for all, and that the supporting infrastructure is affordable and accessible if we are to avoid leaving some drivers behind.

“The report also confirms that common EV misinformation remains a barrier, with many drivers still doubting the environmental benefits of EVs despite them being four times more efficient than a typical petrol car. We must tackle prevailing EV myths head on. EVA England polling shows nine in 10 EV drivers wouldn’t return to petrol or diesel, meaning that given the chance, drivers respond overwhelmingly positively when switching to electric. Tackling remaining barriers to EV uptake must be at the top of the Government’s priorities within its decarbonisation agenda.”

Asif Ghafoor, CEO of national EV charging network Be.EV

“The CCC Carbon Budget is yet another example of the UK leading the charge when it comes to EVs. We’re the biggest EV market in Europe, so the CCC is quite right that the market is at parity with internal combustion engine vehicles.

“Where the Government should pivot is on EV charging – it should stop giving money to councils to install chargers under the LEVI fund, as we’re ending up with all the wrong types of chargers in all the wrong places. No one can blame them, they’re not the specialists in this emerging technology.

“Instead, the private EV charging sector has committed £6bn to install public chargers, and we have the expertise to put them in the places they’ll be used the most. The Government should stop funding this themselves and instead focus on giving private charge point operators access to land at key junctions on motorway trunk routes. If they handle this, the private sector can make sure we have the very best charging infrastructure to support drivers and facilitate the CCC’s electric vehicle targets.”

Silviya Barrett from Campaign for Better Transport

“We are pleased to see the CCC identifying a shift towards sustainable transport, specifically buses and active travel, as well as zero-emission vehicles as crucial to reducing the UK’s carbon emissions from transport. As well as having a positive impact on the climate, public transport and active travel help reduce congestion, improve air quality and contribute to healthier lifestyles. We are disappointed that the CCC does not see a role for rail in this due to the length of time it takes to deliver rail infrastructure improvements… As this report highlights, sustainable transport can reduce carbon emissions as well as promote economic growth.”

Dr Vincent Thornley, managing director of British engineering company Fundamentals

“To keep the journey to net zero on the right side of the road, calls for smarter grid technology to power tomorrow’s EVs. This shift to all electric car sales by 2030 is complex and will require astute navigation from grid operators.

“The UK’s electricity infrastructure needs to adapt to accommodate the significant surge in demand from home chargers. This is quite a shift, when you consider how that impacts the distribution of energy supply and demand. And it requires smart automatic voltage controllers to enable substations to respond immediately to sudden changes in supply and demand, from EV chargers.

“The good news is we are seeing lots of innovation in the grid and also in EV charging and storage. Renault’s new domestic EV wall-box, for example, has its own smart tariff supply contract. This is a game changer, as it is effectively a flexible energy storage system on wheels. It has enormous potential to save consumers a lot of money, help grid operators manage peaks, while cutting carbon emissions significantly.”

Logistics UK director of policy Kevin Green

“The logistics sector is already embracing the decarbonisation agenda and is committed to playing its part to help the UK achieve net zero. Today’s report from the Climate Change Committee highlights a strategy is needed to deliver commercial vehicle charging infrastructure, speed up new grid connections, alongside incentives to tackle higher vehicle costs. Without this, the industry feels it is being set up to fail.

“It is critical that alternative fuels such as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) that can be used in diesel engines without any modifications are incentivised by government. Its use effectively means the industry could reduce carbon emissions by 80% overnight. And while there are some challenges to address regarding HVO production, these are not insurmountable and significantly easier to achieve than installing electrification infrastructure and replacing every commercial vehicle on the road in the short to medium term. Our members have long been calling for a coherent strategy for the role low carbon fuels can play in the transition to net zero, but the government continues to overlook the opportunity that these present.

“The decarbonisation of the logistics sector must be underpinned by an agreed roadmap to net zero and the phase-out of fossil fuels, based on the availability of technology, infrastructure investment, regulatory reform and tax incentives. We believe this is the only way to ensure a fair transition to net zero which protects the UK’s supply chains, while helping drive the Government’s growth agenda.”