The UK must reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales to reach a critical net zero goal, the Climate Change Committee says.

The committee says the new government must reverse recent policy rollbacks, including on the ICE ban

Only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the UK’s 2030 interim net zero target are currently covered by credible plans, according to the UK’s climate change advisors in a newly published progress report which calls for urgent action to get back on track.

The UK has committed to reduce emissions in 2030 by 68% compared to 1990 levels, as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. It is the first UK target set in line with net zero and is now only six years away but the country is not on track to hit this target despite a significant reduction in emissions in 2023.

The committee says the previous government gave inconsistent messages on its commitment to the actions needed to reach net zero, and sets out where action is urgently needed.

This includes electric vehicles and the reversion back to the 2030 ICE phase-out from the current 2035 date. The CCC says the coming years will require substantial reductions in surface transport emissions. The recent rate of emissions reductions will need to increase significantly, which will require the rate of electric vehicle uptake to accelerate rapidly.

The growth in the market share of battery-electric cars stagnated last year despite preceding years of rapid growth, bringing levels to 16.5%, and below the recommended pathway for the first time. Some other European countries such as the Netherlands, France and Ireland saw a continued growth.

While Labour’s election manifesto pledged to restore the 2030 ICE phase-out for cars, it didn’t mention vans. But the new report from the Climate Change Committee says the UK market share of fully electric vehicles – not including plug-in hybrids – out of all new vehicles sold needs to increase from 16.5% for cars and 5.9% for vans in 2023 to between 80% and 100% for cars and between 70% and 100% for vans by 2030.

This will require a resumption of the rapid growth seen previously, but this is expected to be possible as supply continues to grow and costs fall.

The CCC also calls for urgent action to remove planning barriers for electric vehicle charge points, along with heat pumps and onshore wind, as it warns that installation rates of public electric vehicle charging points are on track, but they need to reach treble current rates by 2030.

This news comes against the backdrop of a more positive story – that the country’s emissions (excluding emissions from the UK’s contribution to international aviation and shipping) are now less than half the levels they were in 1990. This is largely due to the phase out of coal and the ramping up of renewables.

The report also reveals that despite slight increases in vehicle-kilometres, surface transport emissions fell by 0.9% from 2022 to 2023 according to provisional data. This is partly due to the impact of electric vehicles within the fleet and the CCC says rapid growth in electric car sales is now beginning to have a measurable impact on emissions, with one million now on the road, meaning that 2.8% of the overall car fleet are now driving without producing direct emissions.

The CCC also says polling shows that the UK public has no appetite for climate division – and says it hopes the new government will take the opportunity of COP29 in November to reestablish UK leadership on the global climate stage.

Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the Climate Change Committee, said: “The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time. They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.

“The transition to net zero can deliver investment, lower bills, and energy security. It will help the UK keep its place on the world stage. It is a way for this government to serve both the people of today and the people of tomorrow.”

Matt Finch, UK policy manager at Transport & Environment, said the progress report makes it very clear that the previous government’s legacy is one of “continual, damaging delay” to net zero

“Thanks to rollbacks and toxic narratives around net zero, public confidence in the transition has taken a hammering. But this leaves the new government with an abundance of opportunity and that comes in the form of boosting demand for electric vehicles, properly taxing the aviation industry, and prioritising giving us details on how they intend to reduce take action on shipping which cannot afford to be ignored any longer.”

And Campaign for Better Transport said transport must be major focus of the new Government’s net zero plans.

Silviya Barrett from the advocacy group commented: “To help reduce emissions from transport, we need to be investing more in public transport and active travel and setting targets to increase their use. The previous government’s decision to cancel HS2’s Northern leg and redistribute of almost a third of the money to road building must now be re-examined as a matter of urgency. For the sake of current and future generations, the Government must consider the best way to expand rail capacity and improve connectivity to help reduce emissions from road transport, including reviving all or parts of the abandoned HS2 sections.”

Campaign for Better Transport’s recently published HS2: what next? policy paper sets out its ‘high five’ transport priorities for Keir Starmer’s new government.

Amongst other things, the charity called for a ‘modal shift’ target to increase the share of journeys taken by public transport and active travel, supported by more investment in public transport and an end to domestic aviation tax cuts and exemptions.