UK set to miss 2028 ZEV mandate targets without ‘tangible’ incentives

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The UK will miss crucial targets on zero-emission vehicle sales by 2028 if major consumer concerns are not addressed.

Cox says the UK needs tangible incentives to bring the price of EVs down and improve charging infrastructure

Under the current rate of adoption, 36% of new car registrations will be fully electric, according to Cox Automotive’s latest forecast.

That’s far short of the ZEV mandate’s target of 52% by 2028; down by some 346,349 cars, which is roughly the population of Coventry.

Cox Automotive and Regit, the firm behind the Digital Garage solution, warned of three crucial insecurities holding the UK from reaching its targets. These include ongoing consumer concerns over EV cost and charging infrastructure but also an underlying confidence crisis.

Published amid the ongoing consultation on the ZEV mandate, their analysis indicates that UK consumers don’t feel confident about the EV switch. More than half (58%) of drivers were keen for manufacturers to share more information regarding comparative cost analysis, including ownership and running costs. This was followed by other suggested resources, including detailed guides on available models (26%) and information on environmental impact (16%). Further, 46% also said that longer warranties or service packages from manufacturers or dealerships would help address their concerns.

EV battery management is also cause for concern. Over two-thirds (68%) of drivers felt manufacturers and car dealerships should improve their information on battery health, lifespan and recycling.

High cost also continues to block adoption. Nearly seven in 10 (69%) drivers said they wouldn’t be willing to pay more for an EV over a petrol or diesel alternative, yet, on average, EV vehicles cost 12% more.

To tackle this, 86% of drivers want to see greater incentives from the Government to drive adoption. The top three include financial subsidies or grants to reduce the cost of the vehicle (62%), reduced cost of charging away from home (56%) and free/discounted home chargers (52%).

The study also indicates that action is needed to address a major image problem for the UK’s charging infrastructure, as 82% of drivers think it is poor, despite evidence that it’s on track with targets. EV drivers also reported issues finding charging points (28%) and one in four found charging costs to be too high.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “Creating deadlines may convey a sense of urgency to the general public about the need for electrification, however that alone is not enough to drive adoption.

“The Government needs to address this growing consumer confidence crisis with tangible incentives to help bring the price of EVs down and improve the nation’s charging infrastructure, while manufacturers and dealerships need to help combat misinformation about making the move to electric. Without these measures, we will simply set deadlines that we can’t hope to achieve.”

Dealers call for continued hybrid sales and interest-free EV loans

Used car dealers would like the Government’s current Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate consultation to spearhead a range of measures to drive EV adoption.

One in four used car dealers think interest-free loans for electric car buyers should be introduced

More than half of used car dealers (51%) surveyed by Startline Motor Finance believe lower production targets that slow the introduction of electric cars should be a focus.

A similar proportion (47%) say hybrids should be allowed to stay on sale until 2035 and 43% agree that interest-free loans for electric car buyers should be introduced. Meanwwhile, 41% think the £15,000 per vehicle non-compliance fine should be lowered for manufacturers that miss targets.

Other suggestions include allowing UK-made EVs to be included in production totals even if they are exported (34%), new manufacturer targets that combine electric car and van sales (28%) and looser rules that enable manufacturers to trade credits (16%).

Paul Burgess, CEO at Startline Motor Finance, said: “The main change dealers really want from the consultation – a general relaxation of the ZEV mandate targets – is the one thing that the Government has already ruled out, so disappointment seems inevitable.

“However, other ideas that have been floated in the media and elsewhere suggest that there could be some potential common ground, such as the introduction of interest-free loans for used electric cars and lowering of the £15,000 fine.”

But he warned of the risk of introducing a range of measures that “move the dial on used electric car adoption only marginally” when the motor industry is seeking a more radical revision.

Notably, the Startline study showed limited enthusiasm for abandoning the ZEV mandate altogether, with just 12% of dealers backing this idea.

Burgess went on: “In a way, this is the most interesting finding from this research. It suggests that dealers recognise the need for the ZEV mandate and electrification in general. Relatively few think that the whole strategy should be abandoned.”

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Natalie Middleton

Natalie has worked as a fleet journalist for over 20 years, previously as assistant editor on the former Company Car magazine before joining Fleet World in 2006. Prior to this, she worked on a range of B2B titles, including Insurance Age and Insurance Day. Natalie edits all the Fleet World websites and newsletters, and loves to hear about any latest industry news - or gossip.