The UK’s used car market will see a flat year for volumes across 2025 but used electric vehicle prices are set to stabilise, Cox Automotive has predicted.

Early signs of levelling are notable across EV prices

The auto expert’s latest used car forecast foresees used car transactions will plateau, with 7,643,043 transactions by the end of 2025. However, optimism remains as vehicle prices show early signs of stabilisation, especially across electric vehicle models, heralding a positive development as the used EV parc is set on a significant growth trajectory over the next four years.

Cox Automotive added that early signs of levelling are notable across EV prices as dealers begin to acknowledge customer value and shorter days to sell.

Following a sluggish start to the year, trade values and first-time conversion rates are firming and overall performance against CAP Clean is increasing, especially in the lower price bandings.

As recent Cox Automotive and Regit data revealed, 69% of drivers wouldn’t be willing to pay more for an EV over a petrol or diesel alternative, the prospect of lower-priced used EVs could help drive adoption in 2025.

Electric Vehicles – Sold Price as a Percentage of New Car Price

Source: Manheim Auction Services

Cox Automotive predicts values will stay strong due to a supply gap in the first half of 2025 due to recent years of low registrations. They will likely continue until prices return to standard depreciation patterns in the third quarter. As interest rates and inflation hopefully stabilise further this year, consumer demand is likely to increase in line, a positive development for those in the used market.

EVs and hybrids are expected to see substantial growth in their share of the car parc by 2028. Both plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are projected to increase their share by 87.37% while EVs will increase by 177.45%.

Meanwhile, petrol cars will see a minor decrease in the same time period by approximately 5.97%. And the share of diesel in the car parc is projected to decrease significantly by 2028, driven largely by stricter emissions regulations, changes in production volumes, supply chain efficiencies and shifting consumer preferences. Looking back at 2024, as little as 123,000 new diesel vehicles were registered compared to 1,065,879 in 2017. This trend will filter through into the used market, limiting the supply of newer diesel models but also declining consumer interest in this vehicle type.

But despite progress in building the UK’s EV car parc, challenges remain. The used market for EVs is expected to remain fragmented as they are generally priced lower than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts, posing challenges when it comes to retaining their value. This combined with regulatory pressures, including VAT charges on charging, the changes to BiK rules for PHEVs (which could drive up the rate for certain models from 8% to 24%), Vehicle Excise Duty and the prospect of road pricing means that an air of uncertainty lingers around the used electric market.

Cox Automotive’s Insight Quarterly (Q1 2025) is available here, featuring new and used car forecasts for 2025 and beyond along with consumer insights from a joint study with Regit.