A potential weakening of the ZEV mandate families stuck paying a £1,600 a year petrol premium “simply because there aren’t enough electric cars to go round”.

The speed at which new EVs are sold is critical to the growth of the second-hand EV market

Ahead of a possible relaxation of the EV sales quotas following the Government’s consultation, Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) conducted analysis on outcomes.

Parts of the car industry are lobbying for the mandate to be weakened but ECIU, a non-profit organisation that conducts independent research and analysis on energy and climate issues, found that a two-year delay to the policy, followed by a slower increase in EV sales, could ultimately result in 2.7 million fewer second-hand EVs being available in the years ahead.

This would leave millions of drivers paying £1,600 a year more to run a petrol car than an EV, with the extra costs incurred by them adding up to around £40bn.

Eight in 10 (80%) car sales in the UK take place on the second-hand market – and upfront costs of second-hand EVs are now comparable to petrol equivalents. New cars are generally sold on after just three to four years, so the speed at which new EVs are sold is critical to the growth of the second-hand EV market. In its first year, the ZEV mandate has been successful in driving up sales of new EVs as manufacturers competed to hit their targets by lowering prices.

Colin Walker, head of transport at the ECIU, said: “The ZEV mandate, introduced by the last government and continued by the current one, has been incredibly successful at driving competition up and prices down leading to hundreds of thousands of new EVs on UK roads.

“The UK is Europe’s largest EV market, beating the likes of Germany at making the shift to cheaper and cleaner electric driving. Parts of the car industry are pushing to slow the ZEV mandate, but doing so could not only leave millions of families worse off, but stall investment in charging infrastructure and cost the UK hundreds of thousands of jobs as we fall behind in the global race to build a car industry fit for an electric future.”

A recent report by CBI Economics, commissioned by the ECIU, revealed that a failure by the car industry to make the transition to manufacturing EVs could see its contributions to the UK economy fall by as much as 73%, or £34.1bn, and over 400,000 jobs could be lost.

Conversely, economic output could increase by over £16bn, and 167,000 new jobs could be created, if a rapid and successful transition takes place.

The ECIU says government support is critical in avoiding such an outcome, and this includes the provision of a stable and supportive regulatory environment through keeping measures such as the ZEV mandate in place.