The Government’s five-year pushback on the 2030 new car and van fossil fuel ban is back in the spotlight as two new pieces of research look at its impact on decarbonisation.

Across the fleet and auto sector, it’s now the ZEV mandate that’s seen as “putting Britain in the fast lane to electric”

Following months of pressure from climate-sceptic Tory backbenchers and ‘pro-driver’ campaigns from The Sun and Daily Mail, the Prime Minister confirmed plans to delay the ICE ban to 2035 last month, reckoning that the UK would still get to net zero by the 2050 target but by a “fairer, better approach”.

The announcement was swiftly followed though by the long-awaited confirmation that the ZEV mandate will kick in from January 2024, requiring 22% of new cars sold next year to be EVs and 10% for vans. The targets becoming increasingly stringent too, rising to 80% for cars in 2030 and 70% for vans ahead of 100% in 2035.

Across the fleet and auto sector, it’s now the ZEV mandate that’s seen as “putting Britain in the fast lane to electric”.

However, there are concerns that the rowback on the 2030 ICE ban will still delay fleet plans for decarbonisation.

Carried out in the wake of the PM’s announcement, a survey by connected operations cloud company Samsara found 85% of UK-based fleet businesses already had plans in place to meet the 2030 deadline at the time of the U-turn.

Of those businesses, 87% say they are either reconsidering their plans (44%), slowing them down (41%), or scrapping them altogether (2%).

The study, carried out by fleets operating petrol or diesel vehicles including vans, cars and HGVs, also revealed that a third (33%) say they have wasted money as a result of the extension and 42% say that extending the ban will negatively impact their business.

Over half (52%) say that the government announcement has caused confusion within the industry. And 62% think that the industry should be able to decide which net-zero technologies are best suited to the industry.

Philip van der Wilt, SVP and GM EMEA of Samsara, said: “The decision by the Prime Minister to water down some of the UK’s net zero policies has caused a lot of confusion in the industry. It has also thrown a spanner in the works for some companies, particularly as they’ve spent time and money to meet the initial 2030 deadline.”

ZEV mandate will limit impact of ICE ban delay but private buyer demand remains a concern

The Climate Change Committee says delaying the ICE ban to 2035 should only have a small direct impact on future emissions – but that’s purely down to the ZEV mandate confirmed since

The Climate Change Committee has also published its evidence of the impact of the 2030 ICE ban delay on UK climate goals – indicating that it’s private buyer demand for EVs that will suffer, not fleets.

Its recent progress report to Parliament in June 2023 set out the risks to meeting the UK’s emissions targets and identified policy gaps and significant delivery risks – and the Government’s eco advisers have now assessed the announcements and developments since then on net zero.

While the committee says other government developments have made meeting future targets harder, delaying the fossil car phase-out date to 2035 is expected to have only a small direct impact on future emissions – but that’s purely down to the ZEV mandate confirmed since.

And it’s warned that there may be other indirect consequences due to the uncertainty that has been introduced by changing near-term consumer targets.

“The risk is that the public and automotive companies perceive a weakening of government commitment to the electric vehicle transition, which could undermine consumer confidence and/or jeopardise some inward investment relating to EV manufacturing.”

This echoes ongoing calls for government-backed incentives to spur consumer EV take-up, as underscored by latest new car registration figures, which show that private buyer EV demand massively trails behind fleets.

The committee also said that relaxing important decarbonisation policies on areas such as travel and buildings was countering the positive progress of other announcements.

And it’s warned of serious ongoing concerns about the likelihood of achieving the UK’s future targets, especially the substantial policy gap to the UK’s 2030 goal.

Professor Piers Forster, chair of the CCC, said: “Around a fifth of the required emissions reductions to 2030 are covered by plans that we assess as insufficient. Recent policy announcements were not accompanied by estimates of their effect on future emissions, nor evidence to back the Government’s assurance that the UK’s targets will still be met. We urge the Government to adopt greater transparency in updating its analysis at the time of major announcements.”