John Murray, head of EVs at Delta-EE, on the range of approaches and strategies that could be deployed within the UK to meet growing demand for EVs and charging points. 

John Murray, head of EVs at Delta-EE

In the last 18 months, the pace of change around the electrification of transport has accelerated beyond everyone’s expectations. Unexpectedly, during the turbulent time of the pandemic, European electric vehicle (EV) sales doubled in just one year, and we are now forecasting 14.2 million EVs on UK roads by 2030. During 2021, we are expecting over 15% of all new cars sold in the UK to be plug-in, compared to just 3% in 2019. In Germany, the pace of change is even higher, with EVs likely to contribute a quarter of all new car sales in 2021.

Supportive legislation and an increasing number of car manufacturers announcing ever more ambitious plans to move away from internal combustion engines has made EVs a financially feasible option for many households, stimulating consumer uptake. However, the booming success of the EV market is currently outstripping the growth of charging infrastructure in almost every country in Europe. And while the flourishing EV sector is crucial to the decarbonisation of transport and a vital enabler of net zero, it can’t proceed at pace without a similarly rapid roll out of the chargepoints that are necessary to keep EVs on the road.

Home is where your charger is

Three core segments constitute the chargepoint market: home, workplace and public. At present, around 90% of the UK’s EV drivers have access to off-street parking, enabling home charging. However, as EVs become mass market this trend will shift downwards over the next decade as an increasing number of EV drivers will be without a driveway or garage. These drivers will need to rely on public or workplace charging. Our latest research indicates that while the home segment will retain the largest share of the overall chargepoint market, with 6.2 million chargepoints expected to be installed in the UK by 2030, it is in fact workplace charging that will experience the largest growth in market share from 12% to 17% in part due to more businesses electrifying their fleet vehicles. The number of commuters using EVs to drive to work is also set to increase, although the new post-COVID hybrid working model has tempered predicted growth.

Electric cars vs public chargepoint availability

While we expect all segments of charging infrastructure to grow rapidly in the years ahead, it is the timely roll-out of public infrastructure that gives drivers the confidence to make the switch to electric. In our 2021 UK forecast, the EV to public chargepoint ratio is expected to increase from 13 EVs per chargepoint in 2020 to 18 EVs by 2030, indicating a widening gap in available public charging infrastructure over the coming years. Our report forecasts approximately 377,000 destination CPs installed in 2030, making it the largest segment in the public segment. On-street charging – the second largest market segment with a 40% market share is mainly dependent on public funding and collaboration with local authorities. And though the UK Government increased the On-Street Residential Charging Fund (ORCS) to £20m for installations in the year of 2021/22, the take up of this funding has been slower than anticipated. Given that investment in public charging infrastructure is unlikely to yield positive returns for the next few years, until the number of EVs on the road reaches a certain critical mass, this is not entirely unexpected. Nevertheless, private funding is crucial to

support the roll out of public CPs. If the growth of public infrastructure does not keep pace with the increasing number of EVs on the road, it may quickly undermine public confidence in electric transport and risk jeopardising the transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles.

Mix it to fix it

If grass often seems greener on the other side, it makes sense to look at how our European neighbours are tackling these challenges. In the Netherlands, where off-street parking is scarcely available, public funding is driving the roll out of on-street charge points. Consequently, any EV driver can apply for that funding to have an electric charger installed on the street in close proximity to their house. Germany, on the other hand, is investing in high power charging hubs, located at strategic locations along the Autobahn network. This model mimics the familiar petrol station set-up by providing a very fast, high-power charger that can be used as a pit stop on the journey. The German government issued a tender for the construction and operation of 1,000 of these high-powered charging hubs in August this year.

When it comes to applying these strategies in the UK, none should be perceived as mutually exclusive. The industry needs to accommodate different types of EV drivers, each with their own unique needs. What might work for a household living in an urban environment differs from those living in rural places and commuting long distances to work. That is why many industry players are advocating for a charging mix that works for different customer types. Another point to consider when building a roadmap of public chargepoint infrastructure is access to the electricity grid. By 2030, when 14.2 million EVs will be driving in the UK, grid and city planners alike will need to consider how best to serve EV hotspots in the context of an electricity network that is increasingly challenged for capacity.

Industry stakeholders need to work together to ensure there are enough chargers for everyone. An example of this is the partnership between Tesco and Volkswagen, delivering 7 or 22 kW chargepoints in 400 Tesco stores. More of these partnerships across the country are crucial to reach the UK governmental goals of 2030.

Similar to the mix of charging locations, the mix of both public and private funding is required to move the industry forward. This is of course highly interdependent, since private investors need to feel confident in making such long-term decisions. Here, public funding is the real catalyser that will dictate the pace at which the CP market will grow in the next ten years. Charging infrastructure roll out is not simple and the challenge at hand requires many stakeholders working together to deliver a seamless EV driving experience.