By Mark Pearce – mobility analytics and EV lead at Hydrock

Mark Pearce – mobility analytics and EV lead at Hydrock

When the Government set out its ambitious plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, alongside several measures to incentivise electric vehicle usage, it was estimated that the UK would need to deliver ten times the current number of charging points to cope with the predicted growth in EV uptake. However, EV uptake has been impacted by the availability and affordability of vehicles, a lack of access to charge points and the increasing cost of electricity. If the UK is to reach its net zero ambitions, all parts of the private and public sectors need to work together to build confidence in the long-term viability of electric vehicles and the accompanying infrastructure.

Last month’s launch of ChargeUK – a new trade body for the EV charging industry – was certainly a step in the right direction. It will bring together 18 of the UK’s largest charge point operators to invest over £6bn in EV charging infrastructure with the aim of doubling the size of the network by the end of the year. The numbers are large and, on the face of it, the aim should be applauded as the limited public charging network is perceived by many as a significant barrier to entry. However, to have an EV network that truly serves the needs of citizens, as well as businesses that rely heavily on the right infrastructure being in place, such as logistics or hospitality fleets, requires a data-driven approach to avoid costly assumptions and unnecessary spending.

Getting the infrastructure right – which numbers matter?

While more charge points are undoubtedly needed, the solution isn’t as simple as installing lots of ultra-fast charging points across the country. In the race to try to satisfy ESG or net zero agendas and demonstrate long-term commitments to sustainability, we’ve found that businesses, whether pub landlords, residential developers or local authorities, are making decisions without real insights and often wrongly estimating what they need – leading to unnecessary risk and expense that is having a dramatic impact on the return on investment across different sectors.

Until now, overly simplistic calculations have had to be made that are erroneously determining the number and type of chargers needed. For example, if you run a large retail park where visitors are expected to spend several hours, your asset doesn’t need a tonne of rapid charging points. With the cost of installing chargers varying widely – from £50,000 per MW up to £2m per MW depending on the type and number of chargers, as well as any potential upgrade required to the electricity grid – getting decisions right is critical. At the most basic level, expanding on the telemetry of fleet vehicles, modelling tools are more accurately able to predict the live state of vehicle charge, maximum power consumptions and the effects of load balancing to introduce smart energy solutions.

To date, no such body of data existed to be able to give investors and business owners an accurate picture of how and where EV charging points should be rolled out across their portfolios to provide return on investment. To address this evidence gap, Hydrock developed StratEV. It is the only modelling tool of its kind and works by utilising the data listed previously to model anticipated EV charging behaviours and demand enabling EV charging developers to provide the most efficient solutions in terms of reducing risk and maximising future usage, avoiding naïve and over-simplified prediction techniques. It provides high-level analysis across a range of portfolios, and a strategic and sustainable solution that works for all network users.

Unlike traditional ways of specifying power connections for charging infrastructure, StratEV combines Hydrock’s engineering and transport modelling expertise, providing a critical grain of detail and specificity, including modelling the distribution of vehicle charging speeds in the area, allowing it to predict the power draw on the local grid during the busiest periods and whether smart energy solutions could reduce the draw on the local power network. These details are fundamental to the optimisation of EV charging provision and avoidance of unnecessary risk as EV infrastructure is rolled out.

Working together for the national future

The launch of ChargeUK will certainly be key in supporting the transition to net zero by rolling out more charging points and building consumer confidence in the network. But those working to make ChargeUK a success need to carefully consider how they can best make this £6bn investment worthwhile for those who will be using the infrastructure. A data-led strategy that addresses the needs of both EV advocates and EV sceptics will be required if we want to see a considerable increase in EV uptake across the nation. Only when such a strategy is developed will consumers at both domestic and commercial level will feel confident that they have access to the right charging infrastructure.