John Walsh, chief commercial officer & president at EO Charging, shares his predictions for the electric vehicle sector in 2025 and explores how the landscape is changing for fleet operators in North America.

Factors driving EV growth include rising consumer awareness and a strong demand for eco-friendly transportation options

The shift to EVs is poised to gain significant momentum in 2025 as attitudes evolve and innovative solutions continue to mature. The North American market has seen substantial growth already, fueled by increased funding and support for EV adoption.

North America has recently seen a surge in EV sales, with nearly 300,000 EVs sold in Q1 2023 alone; a 45% increase from the previous year. Factors driving this growth include rising consumer awareness and a strong demand for eco-friendly transportation options.

This has been supported by significant federal investments in EV infrastructure as part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act. Federal tax incentives of up to $7,500 per vehicle and substantial investments in charging networks, totaling $7.5bn, further encourage EV accessibility for a wider consumer base.

Some of this growth is due to more widespread consumer adoption and the public’s changing attitudes towards electrification. Increasing consumer awareness and demand for environmentally friendly transportation options, coupled with significant investments in charging infrastructure, all play a role in accelerating the shift. In addition, supportive governmental policies, such as tax incentives and rebates, play a pivotal role in making EVs more accessible to the public.

Private and commercial fleets, however, make up a large portion of transport emissions. As such, electrifying these vehicles stands to have a significant impact on the collective efforts to reach net zero. Adoption among fleets has already picked up pace as fleet owners realise the commercial benefits, operational cost-savings, and reduction in environmental impact.

Key to this transition is the successful deployment of the USDOT Federal Transit Administration Low and No Emission Vehicle (Low/No) Grant Program, which has already provided over $1.5bn dollars annually in funding for the purchase of electric buses and charging infrastructure, accelerating fleet electrification.

Looking ahead to 2025, the focus is on the technology, policy, and infrastructure advancements necessary for a swift and efficient transition to fully electric fleets. As a result – and as innovation continues – we anticipate that next year, North America will outpace the European Union in the growth rate of EV adoption.

Projects will scale up to full electric fleets

The era of scaling up is here. With advancements in EV technology and mandates for 100% electric fleets by 2035, the fleet industry is swiftly moving from pilot projects to full-scale electrification. For commercial fleets, transitioning from fossil fuels is no longer optional; the rapid depreciation of internal combustion vehicles in the face of these mandates underscores the urgency.

Fleet operators now recognise that scaling to fully electric operations is not just beneficial but essential

The real shift here is in the move from legislative push to commercial pull. Legislation has been a big reason for fleet operators to adopt EVs – but this alone is not enough to propel a sustained movement.

Fleet operators need a commercial and business justification, particularly considering the upfront cost involved in electrification.

The reality is that the total cost of ownership, taking into account fuel and maintenance costs, can be lower over the vehicle’s lifetime. Fleet operators now recognise that scaling to fully electric operations is not just beneficial but essential; partly to ensure regulatory compliance but also, crucially, to deliver cost efficiencies and a future-proof fleet.

Underpinning this shift is the development of a more robust charging infrastructure, operational support, and software solutions tailored to large-scale fleet management.

The volume of infrastructure tenders for mass electrification will increase

As the countdown to zero-emissions mandates accelerates, the EV industry is experiencing a surge in tenders focused on large-scale infrastructure. Once limited to small pilot installations, these tenders now frequently demand hundreds or even thousands of chargers to keep pace with fleet electrification. Public and private sectors alike are investing heavily in infrastructure to meet the demands of growing electric fleets.

This shift underscores the urgent need for scalable solutions capable of managing energy optimisation, load balancing and futureproofing to avoid costly retrofits down the line. In response, infrastructure providers are innovating to deliver installations that support rapid, seamless expansions as fleet needs grow.

The rise of fully electric cities

All of this is leading towards the inevitable emergence of electric cities, which are no longer a concept but a fast-approaching reality.

Local governments and infrastructure developers in North America are prioritising sustainable, scalable solutions for urban transit systems

With 2025 as the deadline for comprehensive urban electrification plans, local governments and infrastructure developers are prioritising sustainable, scalable solutions for urban transit systems. These plans go beyond passenger EVs to include buses, delivery vehicles and other urban service fleets that contribute to city life.

Cities leading this movement are focused on creating high-capacity charging hubs, renewable energy integration, and smart grid systems, all essential to a fully electric urban environment. The success of electric cities will likely become a model for sustainable urban planning worldwide, showcasing the viability of eco-friendly transit systems that serve both public and commercial needs.

As North American automakers accelerate production of electric vehicles and the market continues to mature, we anticipate a significant surge in both passenger and commercial EV adoption, positioning the market at the forefront of the global transition to electric mobility.