The UK is set to outperform the rest of the world on battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturing by 2035, a new study by the Advanced Propulsion Centre UK (APC) says.

Its latest demand report reveals battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturing in the UK is set to significantly surpass forecasts made for both global and European manufacture, with UK automakers achieving near-total battery-electric production by the middle of the next decade.

Globally, BEV is predicted to account for 38% of all vehicles manufactured, while in Europe it is 57%.

However, while the near-total production is predicted to be in effect by 2035, in the short-term there is an expectation that battery demand will slow from previous forecasts of 2027 and beyond. This will be driven by increased demand for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which are now expected to account for a greater percentage of electrified vehicles than earlier forecasts.

The APC also said global uncertainty in geopolitics, markets and supply chains are causing levels of instability in automotive manufacturing sectors worldwide.

Julian Hetherington, automotive transformation director at the APC, said: “We have set a base-case scenario which forecasts the UK to be manufacturing one million BEVs by 2035. However, given geopolitical instability, uncertainty around the market and supply chain capabilities, we have also considered within the report that a more cautious forecast could see this number reduced by 150,000 vehicles. A regrowth to circa 1.3 million units per annum scenario is considered possible.

“The transition is happening, and we are seeing demand for automotive batteries increasing steadily in all regions over the next 15 years, but perhaps not at the early pace we initially forecast. Hybrid production will take up a larger market share which indicates there is an increased focus on transitionary technologies to enable the shift towards electrified mobility.”

Other areas explored in the report include the demand levels for differing battery chemistries, taking into account regional differences in preferences for the cathode chemistry split, battery material demand and supply for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.

The APC’s quarterly demand reports have been in circulation since 2022 and provide regular analysis into the electrified vehicle sector, focusing on both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles with the aim of forecasting battery and component demand globally, in Europe, and the UK.

The APC’s latest report is online here.