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ZEV mandate U-turns put £15.5bn EV charging sector at risk, warns industry

  • 10 June 2026
  • 0
  • Natalie Middleton

The UK’s electric vehicle charging industry is poised to inject £15.5bn into the economy over the next decade, but experts warn this massive growth could be derailed if

ZEV mandate U-turns put £15.5bn EV charging sector at risk, warns industry

The UK’s electric vehicle charging industry is poised to inject £15.5bn into the economy over the next decade, but experts warn this massive growth could be derailed if the Government heeds calls to weaken its EV targets.

The industry is at an inflection point; pre-profit charging companies are building ahead of demand, making the ZEV mandate critical to investment

According to a new report from charging industry association ChargeUK, the sector is set to become a primary engine of the nation’s net zero economy, supporting tens of thousands of high-wage jobs.

Carried out by LCP Delta, the Powering a Decade of Growth: The Economic Impact of UK EV Charging report provides analysis on the EV transition’s critical 10 years ahead, charting the charging sector’s 2025-2035 pathway to profitability and its maturity into a major employer and economic force.

The report reveals that the charging sector’s economic contribution is expected to increase 15-fold to 2035, maturing from pre-profit to a significant £2.5bn in direct added value annually, totalling £15.5bn by 2035.

The study also spotlights the ‘multiplier effect’; unlocked by charging, the wider EV sector has the potential to be worth a huge £385bn to the UK over the decade as manufacturing of EVs and batteries, servicing and retail grows.

The sector’s annual turnover is expected to climb from £2.5bn today to more than £8bn by 2035. This rapid expansion is underpinned by major capital commitments: after pouring £587m into new infrastructure in 2025, the industry is on track to spend £8.4bn over the next decade. Improved margins and rising asset values are also projected to attract up to £30bn in external investment.

This funding surge will directly impact the British workforce, with dedicated EV charging jobs expected to nearly triple from 12,000 today to 35,700 by 2035. When factoring in the broader supply chain, the sector will support 71,500 roles, forming a vital pillar of the 334,000 total jobs anticipated across the wider UK electric vehicle industry.

But the report warns that a stable ZEV mandate is key to unlocking the prize, as any weakening of the Government’s EV sales quotas could jeopardise charge point operator investment over the critical next five years.

The automotive sector – along with MPs – is currently calling for more changes to the ZEV mandate, further to the flexibilities introduced and extended in 2025. The mandate is currently under consideration as part of a planned review due to conclude in early 2027.

However, the report shows that changes to the ZEV mandate could halve charge point investment – a potential reduction of up to £2bn in capital expenditure on infrastructure rollout – with a knock-on impact on the UK’s ability to seize the £385bn transport electrification prize.

Conversely, there is a £5.7bn additional infrastructure investment upside opportunity if the Government chooses to implement measures that deliver affordable charging for all. These include VAT equalisation with home charging and relief from fixed energy costs.

And a strengthening of the ZEV mandate, such as reversing the flexibilities which were introduced in 2025 allowing for manufacturers to borrow credits and sell more plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, has the potential to accelerate charging investment by 40% in the next five years.

Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, stated that the UK’s EV charging sector is a major success story, with over 1.7 million chargers – including over 120,000 public chargers –  supporting two million electric vehicles.

But she warned that upcoming policy decisions are pivotal, urging the government to choose between slowing the transition – which would harm investment and lock in high fuel prices – or doubling down with a stable ZEV mandate and lower public charging costs to unlock huge economic and environmental benefits.

Read commented: “This is the chance to unlock real growth and deliver a massive economic prize which improves the country’s energy security, health and climate impact.”

Decarbonisation Minister Keir Mather said: “We’re trying to remove some of those barriers that have previously slowed down the expansion of the UK’s network, for example, changing permitted development rights, so that projects can get off the ground quicker and at lower cost.

“But we always know that there is a lot more to do, and I’m constantly having my feet held to the fire by the people in this room, and rightly so. That’s why the Government’s announced its independent review of the cost of charging. It’s exploring making charging accessible and affordable for everyone, which is absolutely critical to the transition.”

Supplementary to LCP Delta’s report, which is based on the analysts’ forecasts assuming current government policy with no further changes to the ZEV mandate, a survey of ChargeUK’s members sheds light on the conditions required to unlock this economic opportunity.

John Murray, head of EVs at LCP Delta, said: ”Our analysis highlights the vast scale of the economic growth and job opportunities that the EV charging sector represents, unlocking up to £385bn of GVA by 2035. As a cornerstone of the UK’s EV transition, the charging sector requires a clear and predictable pathway for growth — one that supports continued investment, keeps pace with rising demand, and enables operators to build sustainable businesses.”

He added: “With a supportive and predictable policy framework, a future in which drivers benefit from a highly reliable charging experience, delivered by commercially sustainable businesses that contribute significantly to the UK economy – both directly and through wider multiplier effects – is well within reach.”

Vicky Edmonds, CEO of EVA England, said this report reinforces the importance of maintaining stability in the ZEV mandate.

Clear, consistent policy is essential not only for industry investment, but also for consumer confidence and EV sales. For drivers, that certainty must be matched by action to make the transition fairer and more practical. That means cutting the cost of public charging, supporting households without access to private charging and building greater trust in the second-hand EV market. Lower, fairer charging prices and better access to charge points would help more people make the switch and ensure the benefits of electric driving are available to all, not just those who can charge at home.”

ECIU warns weakening targets risks multi-billion pound investments

The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said it’s clear that the country’s charging industry is becoming an increasingly important part of the net zero economy, generating billions in economic output and employing tens of thousands of people.

The charging sector’s contribution to the economy could be undermined if the ZEV mandate is weakened

Colin Walker, head of transport at the ECIU, continued: “Yet its contribution to the growth of the British economy could be undermined if the Government bows to calls by parts of the car industry to weaken its EV targets. Not only would this keep people stuck driving more expensive petrol cars at the height of an energy crisis, and weaken the UK’s energy security by keeping us dependent on oil imported from abroad, it would put billions of pounds of investment by the charging industry at risk, and threaten thousands of the jobs that the sector is poised to employ.

“Weakening the mandate could also further incentivise the sale of plug-in hybrids, which have been found to not only cost more to buy than an electric car, but also to consume five times more fuel, and costs hundreds of pounds more to run every year, than their manufacturers claim.”

A new report commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit with analysis provided by the independent consultancy CBI Economics and The Data City, has found that the UK’s net zero economy now underpins the jobs of 1.1 million UK workers, who together generate £105bn in gross value added (GVA) for the UK economy,

From solar panel installers to electric car production line engineers, the report found that those workers employed in the net zero economy generate £119,300 in economic value per full-time job, around 1.5 times the national average – against the backdrop of the UK’s wider productivity stagnation. This leads to higher wages, with net zero jobs earning £43,142, 11% higher than the current national average of £39,039.

The Powering a Decade of Growth: The Economic Impact of UK EV Charging report is online here.