UK new car sales rose 5.4% in October as battery electric car (BEV) demand surged, but the industry has warned of a looming ZEV mandate cliff edge.

Registrations totalled 152,730 units in October, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), marking the 11th consecutive month of growth, albeit at around half the growth rate seen across the first 10 months of the year after a bumper number-plate change September.

Fleet registrations increased by 5.4% to 89,985 units and maintained a 58.9% market share, while private registrations climbed 4.1% to 58,229 units, reflecting continued consumer demand. Business registrations rose by 24.5% to 4,516 units, contributing to the overall performance of the market.

Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric (BEV) cars accounted for all of the growth.

PHEV registrations rose 30.1% to take a 15.0% market share, while BEV deliveries increased by 32.7% to secure 32.0% – the result of intensified efforts to bring registrations closer to the annual mandated targets towards year-end, according to the SMMT.

Hybrid (HEV) volumes fell for a second month, down 5.0%, but, together, electrified cars accounted for almost six in 10 (59.0%) registrations.

Contrasting with the growth in electrified models, diesel registrations dropped 15.9% while petrol slumped 11.6%.

More than half a million (503,805) BEVs have been registered so far in 2026, up 30.4% on a year ago and giving a share of 26.6%, which is expected to reach 27.2% by year-end. That compares to a headline ZEV mandate target of 33%, although carmakers have their own individual targets and calculations by New Automotive indicate that the real EV sales target for the car industry 2026 is 24.6% as a result of ZEV scheme flexibilities.

While the car industry is on course to comply with its EV sales target for 2026, just as it did in 2025 and 2024, the SMMT has said that action is needed. It’s warned that the mandate gap is set to widen next year with a 32% share expected against a 38% target. By 2028, BEV share is expected to reach 37.5% – 14.5 percentage points behind the 52% mandated, more than double this year’s shortfall.

The industry is anticipating updates to the ZEV mandate legislation following the Government’s recent consultation, and the SMMT has called for “substantive changes to the targets, revising them down so they better reflect demand, alongside full flexibilities throughout the regulation to bridge the remaining gap”.

The industry body said last week’s Budget contained little to drive the market, adding that the confirmation of the electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED) mileage-based tax from 2028 and proposed regulation to retain VAT on public charging at 20% ,while domestic use is currently VAT-free, sends mixed messages to consumers.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “Almost one in three new cars registered in October was electric – great progress in the transition, but one that comes at enormous cost. The industry and government are spending billions to help drivers switch, but that support cannot be sustained indefinitely with the gap to mandated targets set to more than double by 2028, just as a new EV-only tax is introduced. Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand. The ZEV mandate review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately to ensure we have a healthy market and an attractive pitch to investors.”

The SMMT registrations data for October also reinforces the Chinese automotive surge, with the Jaecoo 7 claiming the UK’s overall number one bestseller spot for the second month running (3,412 units versus 3,369 for the second-placed Ford Puma) and cementing its position as the nation’s second best-selling car year-to-date behind the Puma.

The league table for top-selling BEV models was headed by the Škoda Enyaq and Mini Countryman but newly launched models from Chinese manufacturers – including the Jaecoo 5 in third and the BYD Seal in sixth – continue to make their presence felt.

A maturing EV market, not a transition finding its feet

Preston Rogers, transport managing director at Lloyds Auto – the new brand name for Lex Autolease, Black Horse and Tusker – said October’s figures show the market continuing to build.

“The underlying picture coming into the final quarter is one of a maturing EV market rather than a transition still finding its feet,” he stated.

Rogers continued: “Sustaining momentum into 2027 will depend on continued investment in charging, clarity on the longer-term policy framework and ensuring the value case stays clear for both households and fleets.”

But Jon Lawes, managing director at Novuna Vehicle Solutions, said that sustaining BEV momentum will depend on giving consumers greater confidence in the long-term cost of switching.

“The Government’s ZEV mandate review is now critical. Manufacturers cannot continue funding ever-greater discounts to bridge the gap between regulatory targets and consumer demand. Meaningful reform, alongside greater certainty over the future cost of EV ownership, is essential to support buyers, protect investment and keep the transition on track.”

And Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, warned that BEV demand is increasingly reliant on manufacturer support to sustain momentum.

“EV demand continues to lag the current targets outlined in the ZEV mandate, so the sector is eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Government’s review by the end of the year, hoping for adjustments that ease pressure across the board. While economic headwinds continue to influence affordability and purchasing decisions, the sector remains on course to achieve the forecast 2.2 million registrations in 2026, with competitive offers and tactical campaigns likely to continue through the final months of the year as manufacturers pursue both volume and EV objectives.”

Maria Bengtsson, EY UK & Ireland mobility leader, said the continued new car sales growth masks underlying automotive industry challenges.

She also noted the significant inroads that Chinese OEMs have made into the UK market this year, and the challenges that is providing to legacy automakers.

“Potential tariffs on Chinese vehicles imported into the UK and the European Union’s ‘Made in Europe’ legislation continue to loom, which could impact future sales trends.”

Other stakeholders noted the need for continued government support for consumer confidence in EVs.

Jamie Hamilton, automotive partner and head of electric vehicles at Deloitte, said: “Fuel costs and increasing model choice are strengthening the case for consumers’ switch to electric, with plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles accounting for all the growth in October. This looks set to continue. Deloitte research shows three-quarters (74%) of consumers expect fuel prices to rise over the next month, which remains well above the 60% recorded at the same point last year.

“At the same time, addressing the cost disparity between home and public charging will also be important in ensuring that the transition to electric is accessible to drivers without off-street charging.”

Finally, the Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) had a different perspective.

Highlighting the rising BEV demand, Nick Connor, chief executive of the business group, said: “Every one of those vehicles needs trained, competent people to sell it, service it and repair it safely for years to come. With around 18,000 vacancies across the sector right now, the transition depends on skills as much as on sales.

“The debate about mandate targets and incentives matters, but there also needs to be a commitment to skilling the workforce. A recognised standard of competence is also critical. If we don’t have the technicians trained, the drivers who’ve made the switch won’t get the support they need, and that will undermine market confidence as a whole.”