Expectations among fleets on future electric van adoption are falling as operators continue to face challenges with everyday use.

When Arval’s 2025 Mobility Observatory Barometer asked fleets to predict the percentage of battery electric vans on their fleet in 2028, the response was 14%. This compares to 15% in 2024 and 18% in 2023 when the same question was asked.

Results were similar for plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vans, with a figure of 14% from this year’s research against 15% in 2024 and 11% in 2023.

Conversely, the expectation for petrol and diesel vans was 71% now, against 64% in 2024 and 62% in 2023 – showing a general feeling that the percentage of traditional diesel and petrol vehicles will increase.

John Peters, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said fleets were encountering issues with electric van use, especially when it came to limitations around range, payload and charging. These were creating operational compromises that some operators were finding very difficult to resolve.

“These are almost certainly the reasons why many of our respondents are unconvinced about the potential for adoption. Indeed, much of the work being carried out by the Arval UK consultancy team is aimed at helping customers find solutions to these issues.”

But he said Arval remains convinced that these predictions are overly pessimistic and that use of both electric and PHEV vans will rise substantially by the end of the decade.

Peters also said it was notable that similar results were seen in the 2025 Arval Mobility Barometer for both UK fleets of different sizes, and European and global fleets.

“This suggests the same kinds of issues with the transition to zero-emissions vans are arising everywhere.

“Hopefully, we can all work together to discover effective solutions.”

What percentage of your fleet do you expect to be battery electric or plug in hybrid within three years?