Drivers are evenly split on the future of the 2035 petrol and diesel ban, a new study reveals.

As the Government’s consultation on the future of the ZEV mandate draws to a close on 23 October, the research from Venson Automotive Solutions reveals that public support for the policy at its heart hangs by a single point.

Just 42% of motorists believe the 2035 phase-out of new petrol and diesel cars should be maintained, against 41% who disagree.

Venson said the slim margin shown in its research is “a world away” from the clear public mandate that the policy would need to withstand a political retreat.

The Department for Transport’s review marks the first formal reassessment of the mandate’s annual sales targets and flexibility mechanisms since the scheme began.

The consultation examines whether the current trajectory to 2030 and 2035 remains achievable – or whether targets for cars and/or vans should be watered down.

Venson’s data suggests the Government has no clear public steer either way.

The study also shows that confidence in the infrastructure needed to support the transition is similarly finely balanced. Only 40% of motorists say they are confident the UK has the charging network needed for mass EV adoption, against 35% who are not, a split that leaves little room for complacency five years out from the ban.

Yet the analysis also complicates the narrative that EV adoption is purely mandate-driven. Asked whether they would still go electric if the Government scrapped its fixed phase-out date, 44% of motorists surveyed by Venson said yes, comfortably outweighing the 30% who said they would not. It suggests that, for many drivers, the shift to electric is becoming a genuine choice rather than a regulatory obligation, even as confidence in the policy itself wavers.

Looking further ahead, the public is split on outcomes too. 43% believe the majority of UK drivers will be using electric vehicles by 2035, against 40% who do not.

Asked what now stands in the way, motorists were clearest of all. Vehicle purchase price remains the single biggest barrier to wider EV adoption, cited by 31%, more than double the next most-cited factor, public charging availability, at 15%.

Simon Staton, client management director at Venson Automotive Solutions, said: “What’s striking is that support for going electric doesn’t collapse when you remove the mandate from the equation; 44% would still make the switch. That tells you the appetite is there, but it’s being held back by cost and confidence, not by unwillingness.

“For many motorists, the calculation isn’t ‘brand new EV versus brand new petrol car’ but ‘keep my existing ten-year-old car versus buy an expensive EV’. Keeping the current vehicle often wins financially. Fleets cannot complete the EV transition alone. If a used EV remains financially unattractive compared to a petrol or diesel equivalent, mid- to lower-income households may simply continue with their vehicles, regardless of what the calendar says.”

Staton added that the ZEV mandate consultation is the Government’s chance to “read the room”.

“It doesn’t appear that the public is rejecting electrification, it’s asking for the barriers around price and charging confidence to be addressed before the deadline arrives. Get that right and adoption follows. Get it wrong and a policy with only wafer-thin public backing becomes very hard to defend.”