Weakening the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate could delay billions of investment in home charging sales, while cutting flexible grid capacity and unleashing millions of tonnes of extra carbon emissions, new analysis suggests.

UK trade association BEAMA has modelled what could happen if the Government reduces the 2030 target for zero-emission car sales from 80% to 50%, which is one of the options on the table in the ZEV mandate review published earlier this month.

The business group estimates that the weaker trajectory could mean up to 1.7 million fewer home charge point sales by 2034 than under the existing mandate, representing around £1.6bn in sales and installations.

That would delay demand manufacturers have already invested or planned to invest to serve. Charging manufacturers across the UK have incorporated the existing sales targets from the ZEV mandate into investment plans for the next decade. Some have planned investments approaching £100m which would result in job creation in local communities.  Manufacturers say significant reductions in the targets could force those plans to be reviewed.

The impact could also be felt across the electricity system. Reducing the 2030 target could slow the rollout of flexible charging capacity at a time when the Government expects EVs to provide a growing source of flexibility to the electricity system.

BEAMA estimates that reducing the 2030 target to 50% could mean up to 12GW less flexible charging capacity by 2034. That sits uneasily with the Government’s own Clean Flexibility Roadmap, which expects around 4.5GW of flexibility from EV smart charging by 2030. This contribution could become harder to achieve if EV uptake, and the rollout of charge points, slows.

Under the same 50% scenario, the additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold could generate 71MtCO2e over their lifetimes. For scale, that is close to the emissions produced by the UK’s entire transport sector in a year.

Matt Adams, head of electrical transport systems at BEAMA, said: “Government needs to decide whether it is mandating or meandering. Manufacturers have invested millions against the trajectory the Government set. If the targets keep changing, the case for investing, expanding and creating well paid, highly skilled jobs that support communities, becomes harder to make.

“Ministers want EV smart charging to provide more flexibility to the electricity system, while considering a weaker mandate that could slow EV uptake and the rollout of smart charge points.

“And there is a wider contradiction. People are being asked to use less water in their gardens as the country grapples with hotter, drier weather. Yet, Ministers are considering changes that our analysis suggests could add 71 million tonnes of carbon emissions over the lifetime of the vehicles affected. If they are prepared to accept higher emissions from road transport, they need to explain where those emissions reductions will be made elsewhere.”

Others in the EV charging sector also urged the Government to maintain current EV sales targets.

Andrew Clint, CEO of smart home energy technology manufacturer Myenergi, said: “The UK has built a world-class EV charging industry on the foundation of clear government policy, with companies such as Myenergi creating jobs, investing in innovation and exporting British technology worldwide. The Government should stick to the plan, provide long-term certainty for industry, and ensure the UK remains a leader in the transition to clean transport.”

And Paul Taylor, managing director at Em-lite – a specialist in smart and prepayment metering manufacture – said: “It is clear from the Government’s proposals they do not realise the impact on businesses and consumers of their messaging. The Government acknowledge that we need to improve EV uptake, yet their messaging undermines this entirely. What this means is more expensive to run petrol cars will be on sale for longer and investment in the UK by charge point manufacturers will be reduced as the Government increases uncertainty in the UK as a place to invest.”

Melanie Lane, CEO at charging firm Pod, finished: “While unwelcome news, this consultation provides an opportunity for the EV sector to reiterate confidence in the ZEV mandate. It has helped drive record EV adoption while sending a clear and consistent signal to the whole ecosystem, from manufacturers and charging providers to investors and drivers, that the UK is committed to an electric future. It’s vital that industry now rallies around the mandate and protects that certainty, ensuring we have the investment and infrastructure needed to enable EV adoption at even greater scale.”